← Saturday Phantom Monarchs Store Champs
Fire ArcaneTier 1
at Saturday Phantom Monarchs Store Champs
decks
1
(9.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
5-0-1
overall winrate
91.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
66.0%
avg ELO +8.5 per match
expected value
62.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
57.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1405
· median 1405
· range 1405–1405
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1029
Q1 1236
Q3 1392
1408
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 18.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 60.4% | +10.0 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 9.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.9% | -6.6 |
| Water Slimes | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 9.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.4% | +12.9 |
| Wind Razorgale | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.6% | +12.1 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Arcane decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
